Background: Although thin, T1 (≤1mm) melanomas have an excellent cure rate with surgery alone, >25% of melanoma deaths originate from thin melanomas. There is, therefore, an urgent need to improve the identification and management of patients with thin melanomas at high risk of recurrence.
Methods: Consecutive patients meeting one of the following two criteria were identified retrospectively: i) T1 melanoma with recurrence within 2 years of diagnosis (T1 rapid group) ii) T1 melanoma with recurrence ≥10 years after diagnosis (T1 late group). Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were conducted to investigate factors associated with first recurrence in the two patient subgroups.
Results: A total of 442 patients from 14 sites in Australia, Europe and the USA were included: 310 and 132 patients in the T1 rapid and late groups, respectively. Median age at primary melanoma diagnosis was 51 years [15-85], 272 (62%) male, 254 (58%) superficial spreading and 101 (23%) head/neck primary. Median follow-up from primary melanoma diagnosis was 4.3 and 17.1 years for the rapid and late groups, respectively. The majority (73%) of recurrences in the T1 rapid group were locoregional. Univariable regression analysis revealed that age >65 years (p<0.0001), lentigo maligna (LM) melanoma histopathological subtype (p=0.025), head/neck primary melanoma site (p=0.0065), mitoses ≥1/mm2 (p=0.0181) and ulceration (p=0.0087) were significantly associated with T1 rapid recurrence compared to T1 late recurrence. On multivariable analysis, age >65 years (HR 3.0, p=0.0009) and ulceration (HR 1.12. p=0.042) remained significantly associated with rapid recurrence, with a trend towards significance for mitoses ≥1/mm2 (HR 1.88, p=0.059). When the multivariable analysis was adjusted to only include variables that were statistically significant (p<0.05) on the univariable analysis, age >65 years (p=0.0010), mitoses ≥1/mm2 (p=0.0492) and ulceration (p=0.0372) remained significant.
Conclusions: This is one of the largest studies to explore the characteristics of thin, T1 melanoma with recurrence ≤2 years of diagnosis. Such recurrence is strongly associated with age >65 years, LM melanoma histopathological subtype, head/neck primary melanoma site, mitoses ≥1/mm2 and ulceration. Patients harbouring these characteristics at melanoma diagnosis may benefit from more aggressive management and closer surveillance to enable timely detection of recurrence.